Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is once again at a fever pitch. As Donald Trump returns to the forefront of global discourse, his rhetoric regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran has sharpened. The former—and potentially future—U.S. President has frequently hinted at, if not explicitly called for, the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands. However, as BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen meticulously observes, this strategy is fraught with historical ghosts. To understand the present danger, one must look back to the dusty plains of Iraq in 1991, a time when a call for revolution led not to liberation, but to a slaughter that still haunts Western foreign policy.
In his latest analysis, Bowen warns that calling for an uprising is easy; managing the aftermath is a monumental task that the United States has historically failed to achieve. The tension between the "Maximum Pressure" campaign and the reality of life in Tehran is creating a volatile cocktail that could explode at any moment. But as history teaches us, explosions are rarely surgical, and they often leave the most vulnerable under the rubble.
The Trump Strategy: Encouraging a Popular Revolt in Tehran
Donald Trump's approach to Iran has always been characterized by a blend of economic strangulation and rhetorical provocation. By withdrawing from the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and imposing some of the harshest sanctions in modern history, the Trump administration sought to bankrupt the Iranian regime. The ultimate goal, though often unstated in formal policy documents, was clear: regime change through internal collapse.
Trump's messages to the Iranian people are often framed as supportive. He tweets about their "courage" and "bravery," encouraging them to stand up against the Ayatollahs. For a population struggling with a devalued currency, high inflation, and social repression, these words can sound like a promise of American support. However, Jeremy Bowen points out that "support" from Washington is a nebulous concept. Is it moral support? Intelligence support? Or the promise of military intervention if things turn bloody?
- Economic Desperation: Sanctions have decimated the Iranian middle class, theoretically creating the "dry tinder" for a revolution.
- The Protest Movement: From the 2009 Green Movement to the more recent "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, Iran has seen significant domestic unrest.
- The Power Vacuum: Trump's rhetoric suggests that a post-Mullah Iran would naturally gravitate toward the West, a notion many analysts find dangerously simplistic.
The danger lies in the gap between encouragement and commitment. When a superpower tells a repressed population to rise up, it creates an expectation of a safety net. If that net isn't there, the result is often a humanitarian catastrophe. This is where the 1991 precedent becomes a chilling cautionary tale.
The Ghost of 1991: When Washington Called for an Uprising and Then Looked Away
To understand why Jeremy Bowen is so concerned, one must revisit the aftermath of the first Gulf War. In February 1991, after the U.S.-led coalition had successfully expelled Saddam Hussein's forces from Kuwait, President George H.W. Bush made a fateful broadcast. He called on the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam to step aside.
The Iraqis listened. In the south, Shiite Muslims rose up in cities like Basra and Karbala. In the north, the Kurds seized control of major towns. For a brief moment, it looked as though Saddam Hussein's brutal reign was over. The rebels expected that the U.S. military, which was only miles away and controlled the skies, would intervene to prevent Saddam from using his superior air power to crush the rebellion.
They were wrong. Fearful of getting bogged down in an Iraqi civil war and worried that a collapsed Iraq would benefit Iran (ironically), the Bush administration stood by. Saddam Hussein used his helicopter gunships to systematically massacre the rebels. Tens of thousands were killed, and millions fled into the mountains of Turkey and Iran. The "betrayal of 1991" became a defining moment in Middle Eastern history, teaching the region that American encouragement does not equal American protection.
Jeremy Bowen notes that the parallels are striking. If Trump encourages Iranians to rise up, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) begins a systematic crackdown, will the U.S. intervene? If the answer is no—which, given the "America First" reluctance for new wars, is likely—the Iranian people could face a 1991-style slaughter.
Why Iran is Not Iraq—and Why the Risks are Higher
While the lessons of 1991 are vital, Bowen also emphasizes that Iran is a far more complex beast than Saddam's Iraq. Iraq was a country fractured along sectarian lines with a highly centralized military. Iran, while also facing internal divisions, possesses a sophisticated security apparatus specifically designed to prevent domestic uprisings.
The IRGC is not just a military force; it is a multi-billion dollar conglomerate with a vested interest in the survival of the current system. Unlike the Iraqi conscripts of 1991, many of whom were happy to see Saddam go, the IRGC and the Basij militia are ideologically committed and have their livelihoods tied to the regime's survival. An uprising in Iran wouldn't just be a protest; it would be a civil war against one of the most well-funded paramilitary organizations in the world.
Furthermore, the regional stakes are significantly higher today. In 1991, the Soviet Union was collapsing, and the U.S. was the undisputed global hegemon. Today, a destabilized Iran would draw in a network of proxies and allies:
- Hezbollah in Lebanon: Any threat to the "mothership" in Tehran would likely trigger a massive escalation on Israel's northern border.
- The Houthi Movement: Conflict in Iran could further destabilize the Red Sea shipping lanes.
- Russia and China: Both nations have deepened ties with Tehran. A U.S.-backed uprising would be seen through the lens of a global power struggle, not just a local quest for democracy.
Bowen argues that by calling for an uprising without a comprehensive "day after" plan, Trump risks igniting a regional conflagration that would be far harder to contain than the 1991 Iraqi revolt.
The "Betrayal" Narrative: Why Iranians Are Wary of Foreign Promises
Storytelling is essential to understanding the Iranian psyche. If you walk through the streets of Tehran (as few Western journalists like Bowen have been able to do recently), you will find a population that is deeply frustrated with their government but also fiercely nationalistic. There is a deep-seated memory of foreign intervention, from the 1953 CIA-backed coup against Mohammad Mossadegh to the devastating eight-year war with Iraq where the West supported Saddam.
The Iranian people are well aware of what happened to their neighbors. They have seen the "freedom" brought to Iraq in 2003, which resulted in years of sectarian violence and the rise of ISIS. They have seen the civil war in Syria and the collapse of Libya. For many Iranians, as much as they dislike the current regime, the fear of "Syrianization" or "Iraqization" is a powerful deterrent.
When Donald Trump calls for an uprising, he isn't just speaking to the protesters; he is feeding the regime's narrative. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, frequently characterizes all domestic dissent as the work of "foreign agents." Trump's overt calls for revolution give the IRGC the perfect excuse to crack down with maximum violence, labeling any demonstrator as a tool of the "Great Satan."
Bowen's analysis suggests that real change in Iran is more likely to come from an internal evolution or a slow-burning domestic movement that is organic and untainted by foreign fingerprints. Direct calls for an uprising from Washington might actually do more to hinder the democratic movement than to help it.
Geopolitical Consequences: From the Persian Gulf to the White House
The implications of this rhetoric extend far beyond the borders of Iran. If Trump's strategy leads to a failed uprising or a humanitarian crisis, the fallout will hit American interests globally. We are looking at potential refugee crises that would dwarf those seen in 2015, oil price shocks that would shatter the global economy, and a complete breakdown of any remaining diplomatic channels.
Moreover, the lesson from 1991 is that American credibility is a fragile thing. If the U.S. encourages a revolt and then stands by as the IRGC executes thousands, the message to the rest of the world is clear: America is an unreliable partner. This would push other nations further into the orbits of Beijing and Moscow, seeking "stability" over "democracy."
Jeremy Bowen concludes that while the desire to see a more democratic and less aggressive Iran is shared by many, the methods used to achieve that goal matter. Foreign policy by tweet and "Maximum Pressure" without a diplomatic off-ramp is a dangerous game. The ghosts of the 1991 Iraqi Shiites and Kurds serve as a silent warning: be careful what you wish for, and be even more careful what you promise.
As we move into a new era of global uncertainty, the lessons of history must not be ignored. The Middle East is not a laboratory for ideological experiments; it is a region where the human cost of policy failures is measured in generations of trauma. If the U.S. is to engage with Iran, it must do so with eyes wide open to the failures of the past, ensuring that the calls for "freedom" do not once again lead to the silence of the graveyard.
- Key Takeaway: Encouraging regime change requires more than rhetoric; it requires a long-term commitment to the people on the ground.
- Historical Context: The 1991 uprising failed because of a lack of air support and clear objectives from the U.S.
- Modern Risk: Iran's IRGC is more integrated and ideologically driven than Saddam's 1991 army.
In the end, Bowen's warning is a call for strategic patience and historical humility. The path to a better Iran is likely through the Iranians themselves, in their own time and on their own terms, without the heavy—and often inconsistent—hand of outside powers repeating the tragedies of the 20th century.
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