Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
In the volatile theater of Middle Eastern geopolitics, rhetoric often acts as the first spark before a conflagration. Recently, the political landscape has been set ablaze by Donald Trump's renewed calls for a popular uprising within Iran. To the casual observer, it sounds like a clarion call for democracy; to the seasoned war correspondent and analyst Jeremy Bowen, it sounds like a dangerous echo of history. As Bowen points out, the ghosts of 1991 Iraq are not just hovering in the background—they are shouting a warning that the West seems determined to ignore.
The core of the argument rests on a simple, yet terrifying premise: calling for a revolution from the safety of a podium in Washington is vastly different from managing the bloody chaos that follows. When Donald Trump leans into his "Maximum Pressure" campaign, he isn't just tightening economic screws; he is signaling to the Iranian people that the United States would welcome—and perhaps support—the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. However, history suggests that such invitations often end in betrayal and mass graves.
The Echo of History: Trump's Ambitions for a New Iran
Donald Trump's approach to Iran has always been characterized by a desire to undo the legacy of his predecessors. From tearing up the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal) to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the strategy has been to push Tehran to a breaking point. Now, as the specter of a second Trump term or the continued influence of "Trumpism" looms over U.S. foreign policy, the rhetoric has shifted toward internal regime change driven by the Iranian public.
The logic from the Trump camp is that the Iranian people are tired. They are tired of the morality police, tired of the spiraling inflation caused by sanctions, and tired of a geriatric leadership that prioritizes regional proxy wars over domestic stability. The "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement that followed the death of Mahsa Amini showed that the cracks in the regime are real. Trump's calls for an uprising seek to exploit these cracks.
However, Jeremy Bowen emphasizes that this strategy lacks a crucial component: a "Day After" plan. Foreign policy experts often warn that "regime change" is a misnomer; it is usually "regime collapse" followed by a power vacuum. In the case of Iran, a nation of 85 million people with a highly sophisticated military apparatus like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an uncoordinated uprising could lead to a civil war that would make the Syrian conflict look like a minor skirmish.
The LSI keywords here are essential: "Middle East stability," "Tehran's regional influence," and "US foreign policy." These aren't just buzzwords; they represent the delicate balance that a forced uprising would shatter. If the Iranian state collapses, the ripples would be felt from the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush.
The Ghost of 1991: When Washington Called for Uprising in Iraq
To understand Bowen's concern, one must look back to March 1991. The Persian Gulf War had just ended. Saddam Hussein's "vaunted" military had been routed by the US-led coalition. President George H.W. Bush took to the airwaves and encouraged the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands, to force Saddam to step aside.
The response was immediate. In the south, the Shia population rose up; in the north, the Kurds seized cities. For a brief moment, it looked as though Saddam's Ba'athist regime was finished. But then came the silence from Washington. Fearing that a collapse of Iraq would empower Iran (ironically), and not wanting to get bogged down in a civil war, the US military stood by as Saddam used his remaining helicopter gunships to crush the rebellion.
Jeremy Bowen was there. He witnessed the aftermath—the horrific scenes of refugees fleeing into the mountains, the mass executions, and the bitter sense of betrayal felt by those who had believed American promises. The "lessons from Iraq in 1991" are written in the blood of those who rose up and were subsequently abandoned. Bowen's reporting highlights that when a superpower calls for an uprising but refuses to provide the military or political infrastructure to protect the insurgents, the result is a humanitarian catastrophe.
In the current context, if Trump's rhetoric inspires a segment of the Iranian population to take up arms or occupy government buildings, what happens when the IRGC deploys its full might? Would the US intervene? If the answer is no, then the call for an uprising is effectively a death sentence for the bravest elements of Iranian society. If the answer is yes, then the US finds itself in a direct, hot war with Iran—a scenario with no clear exit strategy.
The Anatomy of Modern Iran: Why Revolutions Are Not Easily Ignited
Iran in 2024 is not Iraq in 1991. The Islamic Republic has spent four decades perfecting the art of internal repression. The IRGC is not just a military wing; it is an economic empire and a deep state that permeates every level of Iranian life. Unlike the Iraqi army in 1991, which was demoralized by a conventional defeat, the IRGC and the Basij militia are ideologically driven and survival-oriented.
The lessons of the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 protests show that the regime is willing to kill hundreds, if not thousands, of its own citizens to maintain power. They have mastered internet blackouts, sophisticated surveillance, and the use of "plainclothes" thugs to break the spirit of protesters. When Trump calls for an uprising, he is facing an adversary that has built its entire security architecture around preventing exactly that.
Furthermore, the Iranian people are cautious. While there is a deep-seated desire for change, there is also a profound fear of "Syrianization." They have seen what happened to Libya and Syria when central authorities collapsed. Many Iranians, even those who loathe the current regime, are wary of a Western-backed revolution that might leave their country in ruins. They remember the 1953 coup—a pivotal moment in their history where the CIA and MI6 overthrew a democratically elected leader, leading to decades of resentment.
Bowen's analysis suggests that an uprising cannot be "ordered" from the outside. It must be organic, and it must have the internal capacity to withstand the inevitable backlash. Trump's "Maximum Pressure" may have hollowed out the Iranian middle class, but it has also made the population more dependent on the state for basic survival, paradoxically strengthening the regime's leverage over the disgruntled masses.
The Dangerous Vacuum: What Happens If the Regime Falls?
Let us imagine for a moment that the uprising Trump calls for is successful. The Supreme Leader is gone, the IRGC is disbanded, and the gates of Evin Prison are thrown open. What follows? This is where the "lessons from Iraq" become most pertinent.
In 2003 (the second Iraq war), the US learned that removing a dictator is the easy part. Building a state is the hard part. Iran is a multi-ethnic country with significant Kurdish, Balochi, and Arab minorities. Without a central authority, the risk of ethnic fragmentation is high. We could see the emergence of autonomous zones, similar to what occurred in Iraq and Syria, creating a breeding ground for extremist groups.
Moreover, Iran's regional proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq—would not simply disappear. They might become more radicalized and desperate, losing their primary benefactor and turning to even more violent means to secure their own survival. The "regional blowback" would be astronomical. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE would find themselves on the front lines of a chaotic, disintegrating Persian state.
Jeremy Bowen's reporting often touches on the nuance of "stability vs. justice." While the Iranian regime is responsible for immense suffering, its sudden, violent collapse without a transition plan would likely cause even more suffering. The 1991 Iraq uprising failed because there was no plan; the 2003 invasion failed because the plan was based on fantasy. Trump's calls for an Iran uprising currently reside in that same realm of dangerous fantasy.
Jeremy Bowen's Perspective: A Warning Against Foreign Policy Hubris
Jeremy Bowen's career has been defined by his ability to see the human cost of political decisions. When he looks at the current rhetoric regarding Iran, he sees a familiar pattern of hubris. The idea that Western powers can reshape the Middle East through rhetoric and sanctions alone is a fallacy that has been disproven time and again.
The lessons from Iraq in 1991 should serve as a sobering reminder:
- Rhetoric has consequences: Words spoken in Washington can lead to deaths in Mashhad or Isfahan.
- Support must be tangible: If you encourage a people to rise, you have a moral and strategic obligation to ensure they aren't slaughtered.
- Know your enemy: The Iranian regime is more resilient and more brutal than many Western politicians care to admit.
- Beware the vacuum: A collapsed state is often more dangerous to global security than a hostile one.
Ultimately, Bowen's analysis serves as a plea for realism. Donald Trump's calls for an uprising may play well with his domestic base, and they may even tap into the genuine frustrations of the Iranian people. But without a deep understanding of the historical scars left by 1991, and without a commitment to the long-term stability of the region, such calls are little more than reckless gambling with millions of lives.
As the "News Trending" cycle moves on to the next headline, the situation in Iran remains a tinderbox. The Iranian people deserve a future free from oppression, but that future must be built on something more substantial than the echoes of a failed policy from thirty years ago. If the West is to support change in Iran, it must do so with eyes wide open to the lessons of history, ensuring that the mistakes of the past are not repeated on an even more tragic scale.
In conclusion, the "lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large" because they remind us that foreign intervention, even when cloaked in the language of liberation, often leaves the most vulnerable to pay the ultimate price. Jeremy Bowen's warning is clear: before we call for the walls to come down, we had better be prepared for what comes through the ruins.
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